Replacing Luck with Skill

The Math of Poker

Finding the balance of Odds and Probabilities

If you’re like me, just the word math, makes me cringe.  That may sound weird for a poker player, but my game has always been more weighted towards the psychology of the game with a basic understanding of the math.  So for those of us that are mathematically challenged, I’ll share some of the questions and answers I’ve prepared for my students. Btw, if you would like to study with me, you can email me at www.winningatpoker.net, and set up a free interview to determine if I can help you reach your poker/life goals.

The easies way to get started is by asking some basic questions about the type of math that is used in poker.  Questions like;

What’s the difference between odds, probabilities and percentages?  How do you balance these and which one is best to use?  Think of these three terms as different expressions of the same language.  They are simply different mathematical expressions, used for various purposes of calculating the likelihood of an event occurring.

Since poker is about making better decisions then your opponents, calculating the likelihood of a positive event occurring is crucial. But handling and changing them from one to another, for some, can be like trying to change your partner.  Just not that easy to do.  However, I will give you a couple of tips to make it easy.  

Probability is about an event occurring over a total number of events.

Think:  (Chances for)(Total Chances)

Odds is the likelihood of a single event occurring against it not happening.

Think:  (Chances for)(Chances against)

In Odds, 4-1 means you are getting 4 for every 1.  

In Probability terms it means that the event will occur 1 out of 5 times, or 20%.  

If you calculate that the event will happen more then 20% of the time, and still get 4-1 on your money, then you are in a situation in which you have a positive expectation.

Some people find it easier to see things in the form of odds, while others can visualize things better if expressed in probability or percentages. 

  

Here’s a good way to remember how to change probability into odds. Remember that the answer is in the question.  1 “OUT OF” 5 = 4.  1 out of 5 then becomes 4-1 odds. 1 out of 3, becomes 2-1, etc.  Divide the front number into 1 and you will have your percentage.  

If you’re still with me, then let’s look at an example of how we can use odds and probabilities to overcome the "luck" factor in poker.

Is it probable that someone of average skill who plays in a tournament 50 times, in a 50-player tournament, will win at least one time?  The answer of course is yes. However, should you take a bet in which someone is offering you, say 75-1 to win in any one 50-player tournament?  While gamblers would say, "absolutely, you got the edge!" the answer actually is that it depends.  

What are the odds of someone with avg skill winning in a single try?  49-1.

So should you take it?  True, you do have the edge, but will you profit from that edge, or fall off?  Since the odds are 49-1, it’s obviously a long shot. So one must also take in the probability factor of it occurring at all, before making any bet. 

An edge is mitigated when you don’t have enough trials of the proposed event. In this case, you would want to make sure you would have at least 50 “goes” in the long run to give yourself a reasonable shot at realizing your edge. And with standard deviation, 50 might not even be reasonable enough.

So, to take out the "luck," factor,  you have to make sure that when taking odds in any situation that the probability of it occurring is in your favor.  In that instance you not only have edge but you have probability.  The two together, balanced with proper perspective and a good attitude, will replace luck.

Kenna James

www.winningatpoker.net